Accidents, Incidents, and Why Your Premium Didn’t Drop When They “Fell Off”

3 min read Brian Berge · Independent insurance agent in Arden Hills, MN

Q: Why didn’t my auto insurance rate drop when an accident fell off? A: Claims can age out, yet renewal rating stays high because carriers don't automatically re-underwrite.

Start here: Auto & Driver Risk

In Minnesota, hail and deer claims are common, and winter driving spikes collision frequency across the metro.

The Confusing Part

You had an accident years ago. You were told it “falls off” after a certain window. Then the window passes… and your premium doesn’t drop.

It feels like the carrier is ignoring its own rules.

How It Works

There are usually multiple moving parts:

  • Rating windows exist, but they vary. The “3 years” or “5 years” number depends on carrier, state rules, and the specific incident type.
  • Aged-out doesn’t mean re-priced. Many carriers re-rate at renewal using current factors, but they don’t proactively “optimize” your price because one factor improved.
  • Your renewal price is a blend. Base rates can rise (repair costs, medical costs, litigation), while your personal tier may improve. You can have a true improvement that gets masked.
  • Tiering and discounts can dominate. Claim-free discounts, accident forgiveness programs, and underwriting tiers can change with a loss history and recover on a different timeline.

So “falling off” is not a refund event. It’s one input becoming less negative—inside a larger rating system.

Where It Breaks Down

Two failure modes are common:

  1. You expect a clean drop at the exact anniversary date.
    Most pricing changes are realized on renewal, and sometimes only after a re-underwrite event.

  2. You assume your risk profile is otherwise unchanged.
    Even if the old loss ages out, other signals can move against you: territory, vehicle replacement cost, mileage/usage changes, or credit-based insurance score (where allowed).

That’s why the story needs mechanics: the carrier’s repricing timing plus the broader pricing environment.

The Tradeoffs

The wrong reaction is to start “gaming” the system.

  • Avoiding necessary claims can reduce surcharges, but it can also shift costs to the worst possible day.
  • Shopping every year can help, but it also creates noise if you don’t understand which signals you’re actually changing.
  • Dropping coverages can reduce premium, but it can also remove the only coverage you would realistically use.

The goal is not loyalty or constant switching. It’s calibration.

What Moves the Outcome

Risk Signals

  • Accident/incident history and how each carrier weights it
  • Violations (even “minor” ones) that stack into tier changes
  • Territory and usage changes that reclassify your exposure

Coverage Structure

  • Deductible choices (especially if you’re filing smaller claims)
  • Limits and optional coverages you may be over-buying or under-buying
  • Endorsements that quietly change how the policy responds

Market Context

  • Carrier appetite: some are de-risking your segment, others are pursuing it
  • Repricing inertia: improvements don’t automatically appear at renewal
  • Market cycle pressure: base rates can rise even when your individual risk improves

Deeper context

For a wider view on why the market still matters, see Why Switching Carriers Works in One Zip Code and Fails in the Next.

How to Decide

If a loss aged out but your renewal stayed high, shop carriers with different appetite. If not, adjust deductibles and limits first.

Minnesota note: rates and carrier appetite can swing by county, so a Twin Cities renewal isn’t always a perfect proxy for greater Minnesota.

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